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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-04-09T09:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-04-09T09:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19709/-1
CME Note: Visible in the southwest of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption seen slowly lifting off in the southwest of SDO AIA 304 starting around 2022-04-09T05:15Z. It is also visible in SDO AIA 193 and 171 and in the southwest of STEREO A EUVI 195. The CME sheath/shock arrived at 2022-04-12T10:33Z and the flux rope arrived at 2022-04-13T01:54Z. The flux rope arrival was used as the IPS entry arrival time in DONKI as the flux rope arrival was responsible for a 10nT threshold crossing in Btotal. Btotal had only reached a maximum Btotal of ~8nT for the shock arrival.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-04-12T10:33Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-04-13T02:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 09/2010
Radial velocity (km/s): 500
Longitude (deg): 17W
Latitude (deg): 34S
Half-angular width (deg): 32

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: Lawrence Howard

Lead Time: 51.30 hour(s)
Difference: -15.45 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-04-10T07:15Z

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